Could the 2017 Brexit referendum and same-sex marriage help the Conservative Party to win the 2015 general election?
I can't help feeling that the EU in-out referendum promised by the Conservatives for 2017 could potentially be a significant factor that sways the general election in the Conservatives' favour. The wish to leave the EU is something that tends to be automatically associated with Ukip voters and a large number of Conservative voters, but there is also (perhaps surprisingly) considerable support (apparently over 30%) among those who tend to vote Labour and Lib Dem for leaving the EU http://bit.ly/1gbhsNp. Quite a number of people seem to have a tendency to generally vote in a certain way without having a particular loyalty to a political party, so if a particular policy has an overwhelming appeal to them, many will be prepared to switch in quite a radical way. Many people who vote do not have a great deal of interest in politics, let alone in making great compromises to support a party that champions a cause with which they strongly disagree; and my hunch is that there are more people who dislike our membership of the EU than we realise.
As the Prime Minister currently seems keen for the UK to remain a member of the EU, it is always possible that the Conservatives will soft-pedal the 2017 EU referendum in their general election campaign. Though recent indications that he seems more willing to threaten the EU with the prospect of our exit, should satisfactory reforms be denied, might well cause the soft-pedalling to stop. I would not be at all surprised if the Brexit turned into an issue that would galvanise the majority of the electorate.
The other factor that could significantly influence the probability of a Conservative victory in 2015 is, in my view, the Prime Minister's success, and indeed that of his colleagues, in modernising the Conservative Party and making it into an institution that champions inclusivity, diversity and social liberalism. Far too many people - many of them probably nonetheless natural conservatives - would still not vote Conservative today because they associate the Conservative Party with the appalling homophobic views and actions that characterised it in the 1980s and previously. The Prime Minister might currently feel minded to keep the tremendous commitment he demonstrated in legalising same-sex marriage low key during the election campaign, for fear of opening old wounds and alienating the social conservatives who opposed the measure but may have recovered enough to still vote Conservative in 2015. However, unapologetically celebrating and publicising the Conservatives' role in legalising same-sex marriage would send a very strong signal to sceptics in the electorate about how much the Conservative Party has changed for the better, and how appropriate it is these days for social liberals to vote Conservative. After all, the vast majority of the electorate either support same-sex marriage, or are indifferent to it. There is much more to gain than to lose by being unabashed about the Conservative Party's new progressive and inclusive identity, and its willingness to fight hard for social justice and equality.
© Gary Powell, 2014
The above is a comment posted under the Times opinion piece by Daniel Finkelstein, 'And the winner of the next election is . . .' (27 August 2014).
